Odds of a card being prized in the Pokémon TCG
With one copy in a 60-card deck, there is a 10% chance it starts among your 6 Prize cards; with four copies, a 35.1% chance at least one does, but only a 0.0031% chance all four do. Enter how many copies you play to see the full distribution.
How it is calculated
At the start of the game each player sets aside the top 6 cards of a shuffled 60-card deck as Prize cards. Which 6 cards they are is a random sample, so the hypergeometric distribution gives the exact chance of each number of copies being prized. The 7-card opening hand does not change these figures: the deck is shuffled before both are drawn.
If a key card is prized, you can only get it back by taking that Prize, or with cards that let you look at or swap Prize cards. That is why many decks play two or more copies of essential cards.
Quick reference (60-card deck, 6 Prizes)
| Copies | At least one prized | All prized |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10.0 % | 10.0 % |
| 2 | 19.2 % | 0.8 % |
| 3 | 27.5 % | 0.0584 % |
| 4 | 35.1 % | 0.0031 % |
Sources and checks
Setup rules checked on 27 October 2026 in our Pokémon rules guide, which cites the official rulebook.